by Mike Calpino
As the debate over the debt ceiling heats up, each side is looking for an advantage. Except for a few principled holdouts, it would appear that both sides want to raise the ceiling, again, and are using it as a huge bargaining chip. The Republicans are trying to hold the line on taxes, or “revenue enhancements”, and get major spending cuts. We shall see whether they hold fast, the last several months of capitulation don’t hold much promise. The Democrats want to keep every program and increase spending and taxes, particularly on the “rich.” It is clear that President Obama wants to tax and spend, his recent speeches have made that abundantly clear. The question is, what is the end game?
Several years ago I postulated that the Democrats would use economic crisis to remove the Republicans from contention in politics for another generation. Their ability to demonize Republicans, particularly “conservative” Republicans, has been very successful over the years. If a “compromise” is reached, which is the most likely outcome, we will borrow even more and demonstrate to the world that we have no intention of reigning in our spending and balancing our budget. The compromise will probably take the following form. The Democrats will agree to a few trillion in cuts over the next ten years, meaning we’ll only borrow an additional twelve trillion dollars instead of sixteen trillion from our children and grandchildren. The Republicans will agree to some revenue enhancements like closing loopholes. Remember, a “loophole” is a legal way to keep more of your money so read that “tax increase”. This will anger the TEA party, conservatives and libertarians among the Republican party who will either actively abandon them and go elsewhere or simply give up and stop supporting them. This will ensure Democrat victory in the near term and as the economy continues to falter under the greater debt and tax load, more dependents will be created-read “Democrat voters.”
That is one possibility. What if a deal is not reached? What if on August 3rd we find ourselves unable to borrow the forty cents on every dollar we are currently spending? All of a sudden our government will be forced to live on the two hundred billion dollars that come in every month in taxes and no more. In the face of the fact that we have taken on obligations we cannot pay for, we will suddenly find ourselves in the position of having to choose priorities. If it were your household, you would be choosing between car and house payments, food, the cable and cell phone bills, the utilities. It is assumed that our first priority will be to pay the interest on our outstanding debt and redeeming bonds that come due in order to maintain our fiscal health and credit rating. Beyond that President Obama will have the discretion to choose which bills get paid. If the end game is to put the Republicans far in the back of the bus, as the President puts it, he will spend or not spend to his and the Democrat’s political advantage. He will slow or reduce welfare and social security payments, reduce Medicare reimbursements and panic the largest constituencies while blaming the Republicans and the rich who won’t contribute their fair share. The pressure won’t have to be applied long before the debt ceiling will be raised and the Democrats will get everything they want. More spending, more taxes and a new tactic for fear mongering. If you elect those mean Republicans, they won’t raise the debt ceiling next time and your benefits will go away. If the accumulation of power is the end, this is certainly an effective means.